<!DOCTYPE html><html xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml" xmlns:v="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:vml" xmlns:o="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office"><head>
<!--[if gte mso 15]>
<xml>
<o:OfficeDocumentSettings>
<o:AllowPNG/>
<o:PixelsPerInch>96</o:PixelsPerInch>
</o:OfficeDocumentSettings>
</xml>
<![endif]-->
<meta charset="UTF-8">
<meta http-equiv="X-UA-Compatible" content="IE=edge">
<meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
<title>The Navigator: Not the Time to Be Complacent</title>
<link rel="preconnect" href="https://fonts.googleapis.com">
<link rel="preconnect" href="https://fonts.gstatic.com" crossorigin="">
<!--[if !mso]><!--><link rel="stylesheet" type="text/css" id="newGoogleFontsStatic" href="https://fonts.googleapis.com/css?family=Lato:400,400i,700,700i,900,900i"><!--<![endif]--><style> img{-ms-interpolation-mode:bicubic;} table, td{mso-table-lspace:0pt; mso-table-rspace:0pt;} .mceStandardButton, .mceStandardButton td, .mceStandardButton td a{mso-hide:all !important;} p, a, li, td, blockquote{mso-line-height-rule:exactly;} p, a, li, td, body, table, blockquote{-ms-text-size-adjust:100%; -webkit-text-size-adjust:100%;} @media only screen and (max-width: 480px){ body, table, td, p, a, li, blockquote{-webkit-text-size-adjust:none !important;} } .mcnPreviewText{display: none !important;} .bodyCell{margin:0 auto; padding:0; width:100%;} .ExternalClass, .ExternalClass p, .ExternalClass td, .ExternalClass div, .ExternalClass span, .ExternalClass font{line-height:100%;} .ReadMsgBody{width:100%;} .ExternalClass{width:100%;} a[x-apple-data-detectors]{color:inherit !important; text-decoration:none !important; font-size:inherit !important; font-family:inherit !important; font-weight:inherit !important; line-height:inherit !important;} body{height:100%; margin:0; padding:0; width:100%; background: #ffffff;} p{margin:0; padding:0;} table{border-collapse:collapse;} td, p, a{word-break:break-word;} h1, h2, h3, h4, h5, h6{display:block; margin:0; padding:0;} img, a img{border:0; height:auto; outline:none; text-decoration:none;} a[href^="tel"], a[href^="sms"]{color:inherit; cursor:default; text-decoration:none;} li p {margin: 0 !important;} .ProseMirror a { pointer-events: none; } @media only screen and (max-width: 640px){ .mceClusterLayout td{padding: 4px !important;} } @media only screen and (max-width: 480px){ body{width:100% !important; min-width:100% !important; } body.mobile-native { -webkit-user-select: none; user-select: none; transition: transform 0.2s ease-in; transform-origin: top center; } body.mobile-native.selection-allowed a, body.mobile-native.selection-allowed .ProseMirror { user-select: auto; -webkit-user-select: auto; } colgroup{display: none;} img{height: auto !important;} .mceWidthContainer{max-width: 660px !important;} .mceColumn{display: block !important; width: 100% !important;} .mceColumn-forceSpan{display: table-cell !important; width: auto !important;} .mceColumn-forceSpan .mceButton a{min-width:0 !important;} .mceBlockContainer{padding-right:16px !important; padding-left:16px !important;} .mceTextBlockContainer{padding-right:16px !important; padding-left:16px !important;} .mceBlockContainerE2E{padding-right:0px; padding-left:0px;} .mceSpacing-24{padding-right:16px !important; padding-left:16px !important;} .mceImage, .mceLogo{width: 100% !important; height: auto !important;} .mceFooterSection .mceText, .mceFooterSection .mceText p{font-size: 16px !important; line-height: 140% !important;} } div[contenteditable="true"] {outline: 0;} .ProseMirror h1.empty-node:only-child::before, .ProseMirror h2.empty-node:only-child::before, .ProseMirror h3.empty-node:only-child::before, .ProseMirror h4.empty-node:only-child::before { content: 'Heading'; } .ProseMirror p.empty-node:only-child::before, .ProseMirror:empty::before { content: 'Start typing...'; } .mceImageBorder {display: inline-block;} .mceImageBorder img {border: 0 !important;}
body, #bodyTable { background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); }#bodyTable { background-image: url("https://mcusercontent.com/cdd951e6a7a08b835a0f38a3f/images/adad29eb-9a84-fcd0-88e9-9ea75dd94dad.jpg"); background-position: center center; background-size: contain; background-repeat: repeat; }
@media screen and (max-height: 480px), (max-width: 480px) { body { background-image: url("https://dim.mcusercontent.com/cs/cdd951e6a7a08b835a0f38a3f/images/adad29eb-9a84-fcd0-88e9-9ea75dd94dad.jpg?w=480"); }
@media screen and (-webkit-min-device-pixel-ratio: 2), (min-resolution: 192dpi) { body { background-image: url("https://dim.mcusercontent.com/cs/cdd951e6a7a08b835a0f38a3f/images/adad29eb-9a84-fcd0-88e9-9ea75dd94dad.jpg?w=480&dpr=2"); } } }
@media screen and (max-height: 860px), (max-width: 860px) { body { background-image: url("https://dim.mcusercontent.com/cs/cdd951e6a7a08b835a0f38a3f/images/adad29eb-9a84-fcd0-88e9-9ea75dd94dad.jpg?w=860"); }
@media screen and (-webkit-min-device-pixel-ratio: 2), (min-resolution: 192dpi) { body { background-image: url("https://dim.mcusercontent.com/cs/cdd951e6a7a08b835a0f38a3f/images/adad29eb-9a84-fcd0-88e9-9ea75dd94dad.jpg?w=860&dpr=2"); } } }
@media screen and (max-height: 1200px), (max-width: 1200px) { body { background-image: url("https://dim.mcusercontent.com/cs/cdd951e6a7a08b835a0f38a3f/images/adad29eb-9a84-fcd0-88e9-9ea75dd94dad.jpg?w=1200"); }
@media screen and (-webkit-min-device-pixel-ratio: 2), (min-resolution: 192dpi) { body { background-image: url("https://dim.mcusercontent.com/cs/cdd951e6a7a08b835a0f38a3f/images/adad29eb-9a84-fcd0-88e9-9ea75dd94dad.jpg?w=1200&dpr=2"); } } }
@media screen and (max-height: 1800px), (max-width: 1800px) { body { background-image: url("https://dim.mcusercontent.com/cs/cdd951e6a7a08b835a0f38a3f/images/adad29eb-9a84-fcd0-88e9-9ea75dd94dad.jpg?w=1800"); }
@media screen and (-webkit-min-device-pixel-ratio: 2), (min-resolution: 192dpi) { body { background-image: url("https://dim.mcusercontent.com/cs/cdd951e6a7a08b835a0f38a3f/images/adad29eb-9a84-fcd0-88e9-9ea75dd94dad.jpg?w=1800&dpr=2"); } } }
.mceText, .mcnTextContent, .mceLabel { font-family: Lato, "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; }.mceText, .mcnTextContent, .mceLabel { color: rgb(32, 46, 74); }.mceText h4 { margin-bottom: 0px; }.mceText p { margin-bottom: 0px; }.mceText ul { margin-bottom: 0px; }.mceText label { margin-bottom: 0px; }.mceText input { margin-bottom: 0px; }.mceSpacing-24 .mceInput + .mceErrorMessage { margin-top: -12px; }.mceInput { background-color: transparent; border: 2px solid rgb(208, 208, 208); width: 60%; color: rgb(77, 77, 77); display: block; }.mceInput[type="radio"], .mceInput[type="checkbox"] { float: left; margin-right: 12px; display: inline; width: auto !important; }.mceLabel > .mceInput { margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 2px; }.mceLabel { display: block; }.mceText p, .mcnTextContent p { color: rgb(32, 46, 74); font-family: Lato, "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-weight: normal; line-height: 1.5; mso-line-height-alt: 150%; text-align: left; direction: ltr; }.mceText h4, .mcnTextContent h4 { color: rgb(135, 63, 111); font-family: Lato, "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; font-weight: normal; line-height: 1.5; mso-line-height-alt: 150%; text-align: left; direction: ltr; }.mceText a, .mcnTextContent a { color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: underline; direction: ltr; }p.mcePastedContent, h1.mcePastedContent, h2.mcePastedContent, h3.mcePastedContent, h4.mcePastedContent { text-align: left; }.mceSectionBody .mceText h4, .mceSectionBody .mcnTextContent h4 { }.mceSectionBody .mceText p, .mceSectionBody .mcnTextContent p { }.mceSectionFooter .mceText p, .mceSectionFooter .mcnTextContent p { }.mceSectionFooter .mceText a, .mceSectionFooter .mcnTextContent a { font-style: normal; }
@media only screen and (max-width: 480px) { .mceText p { margin: 0px; font-size: 16px !important; line-height: 1.5 !important; mso-line-height-alt: 150%; } }
@media only screen and (max-width: 480px) { .mceText h4 { font-size: 20px !important; line-height: 1 !important; mso-line-height-alt: 100%; } }
@media only screen and (max-width: 480px) { .mceBlockContainer { padding-left: 18px !important; padding-right: 18px !important; } }
@media only screen and (max-width: 480px) { .mceDividerBlock { border-top-width: 2px !important; } }
@media only screen and (max-width: 480px) { .mceDividerContainer { width: 100% !important; } }
</style></head>
<body>
<!---->
<!--[if !gte mso 9]><!----><span class="mcnPreviewText" style="display:none; font-size:0px; line-height:0px; max-height:0px; max-width:0px; opacity:0; overflow:hidden; visibility:hidden; mso-hide:all;">Despite the best efforts of the global investing community, few are able to anticipate the major events that shape investment outcomes...</span><!--<![endif]-->
<!---->
<div style="display: none; max-height: 0px; overflow: hidden;"> ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ </div><!--MCE_TRACKING_PIXEL-->
<center>
<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" height="100%" width="100%" id="bodyTable" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">
<tbody><tr>
<td class="bodyCell" align="center" valign="top">
<table id="root" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody data-block-id="4" class="mceWrapper"><tr><td style="background-color:transparent" valign="top" align="center" class="mceSectionHeader"><!--[if (gte mso 9)|(IE)]><table align="center" border="0" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="660" style="width:660px;"><tr><td><![endif]--><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="max-width:660px" role="presentation"><tbody><tr><td style="background-color:#ffffff" valign="top" class="mceWrapperInner"><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" role="presentation" data-block-id="3"><tbody><tr class="mceRow"><td style="background-position:center;background-repeat:no-repeat;background-size:cover" valign="top"><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" role="presentation"><tbody><tr><td style="padding-top:0;padding-bottom:0" valign="top" class="mceColumn" data-block-id="-7" colspan="12" width="100%"><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" role="presentation"><tbody><tr><td style="background-color:transparent" valign="top"><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" role="presentation" data-block-id="1"><tbody><tr><td valign="top" class="mceSpacerBlock" height="20"></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="padding-top:12px;padding-bottom:12px;padding-right:12px;padding-left:12px" valign="top" class="mceBlockContainer" align="full"><span class="mceImageBorder" style="border:0;border-radius:0;vertical-align:top;margin:0"><img data-block-id="2" width="636" height="auto" style="width:636px;height:auto;max-width:1200px !important;border-radius:0;display:block" alt="" src="https://mcusercontent.com/cdd951e6a7a08b835a0f38a3f/images/a86f839c-a053-ac69-09f0-15a92976560c.jpg" role="presentation" class="imageDropZone mceImage"></span></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table><!--[if (gte mso 9)|(IE)]></td></tr></table><![endif]--></td></tr></tbody><tbody data-block-id="15" class="mceWrapper"><tr><td style="background-color:transparent" valign="top" align="center" class="mceSectionBody"><!--[if (gte mso 9)|(IE)]><table align="center" border="0" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="660" style="width:660px;"><tr><td><![endif]--><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="max-width:660px" role="presentation"><tbody><tr><td style="background-color:#ffffff" valign="top" class="mceWrapperInner"><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" role="presentation" data-block-id="14"><tbody><tr class="mceRow"><td style="background-position:center;background-repeat:no-repeat;background-size:cover" valign="top"><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" role="presentation"><tbody><tr><td style="padding-top:0;padding-bottom:0" valign="top" class="mceColumn" data-block-id="-8" colspan="12" width="100%"><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" role="presentation"><tbody><tr><td style="background-color:transparent;padding-top:0;padding-bottom:5px;padding-right:24px;padding-left:24px" valign="top" class="mceBlockContainer"><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="background-color:transparent;width:100%" role="presentation" class="mceDividerContainer" data-block-id="5"><tbody><tr><td style="min-width:100%;border-top-width:2px;border-top-style:solid;border-top-color:#d0d0d0;line-height:0;font-size:0" valign="top" class="mceDividerBlock"> </td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="padding-top:0;padding-bottom:0;padding-right:0;padding-left:0" valign="top"><table width="100%" style="border:0;border-radius:0;border-collapse:separate"><tbody><tr><td style="padding-left:24px;padding-right:24px;padding-top:5px;padding-bottom:12px" class="mceTextBlockContainer"><div data-block-id="6" class="mceText" id="dataBlockId-6" style="width:100%"><p class="last-child"><span style="color:#4d4d4d;"><span style="font-size: 14px"><span style="font-family: 'Lato', 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif">Edition 072 | </span>January 2025</span></span></p></div></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="padding-top:0;padding-bottom:0;padding-right:0;padding-left:0" valign="top" class="mceBlockContainer" align="left"><span class="mceImageBorder" style="border:0;border-radius:0;vertical-align:top;margin:0"><img data-block-id="7" width="660" height="auto" style="width:660px;height:auto;max-width:1200px !important;border-radius:0;display:block" alt="" src="https://mcusercontent.com/cdd951e6a7a08b835a0f38a3f/images/ccbc24a7-2682-8e8c-8a3e-70053d8ee659.png" role="presentation" class="imageDropZone mceImage"></span></td></tr><tr><td style="padding-top:0;padding-bottom:0;padding-right:0;padding-left:0" valign="top"><table width="100%" style="border:0;border-radius:0;border-collapse:separate"><tbody><tr><td style="padding-left:24px;padding-right:24px;padding-top:12px;padding-bottom:12px" class="mceTextBlockContainer"><div data-block-id="8" class="mceText" id="dataBlockId-8" style="width:100%"><h4>Despite the best efforts of the global investing community, few are able to anticipate the major events that shape investment outcomes, and 2024 was no different. Over the year 1.6bn voters headed to the polls, with 80% of incumbent parties losing material control and almost a third of all elections changing governing party. Trump’s re-election. The South African GNU. NVIDIA topping the tables (again). Artificial intelligence compounding its gains from 2023. Persistent inflation and cost of living pressures. Chinese false starts and course corrects. India’s surge and Mexico’s happiness. The dollar dominating (again). Higher interest rates for longer.</h4><p><br></p><p>How many of these events, and hundreds like them, were spotted upfront and positioned for? And in addition, how many funds captured the opportunity? At best we would estimate a small proportion, sufficiently small to render them news stories rather than useful investment insights.</p><p><br></p><p>Taking stock of the world and condensing it into a synopsis-style forecast doesn’t seem to be a valuable pursuit, and so this year, as with other years, we won’t be offering our forecasts.</p><p><br></p><p>What we can do is assess where we are today in terms of valuations, risk and opportunities so that we can gauge how to position for the future. This has proven to be a more reliable investment approach, even if somewhat less exciting.</p><p><br></p><h4><strong>Global Equity</strong></h4><p>The charts below covering the full global equity market illustrate that while 2023 had somewhat of a wobble and a strong recovery, 2024 was a steady and strong year, driving good returns across most assets and regions. Investors will be satisfied with a job well done. So where are we today?</p><ul><li><p>Profit margins have recovered from GFC and COVID level lows in 2020 to what are likely cyclical highs in 2024 (~15%). What can eat into profit margins? Inflation, consumer stress, supply chain challenges and a variety of other headwinds. What can expand them further? The AI boom continuing (limited supply, huge demand for components) and interest rate cuts as example. Can we forecast them? Well, no. But margins are high and we should take heed of this - the likelihood of a cutback is greater than the potential for further expansion.</p></li><li><p>Valuation multiples are also high. The 12-month forward PE for instance is 20% high (30% in the US), Price to Sales is almost 50% higher than average! This indicates the market is increasingly looking further into the future for earnings growth. The cost of any disappointment will be significant.</p></li><li><p>Yet earnings growth expectations have moderated. The market is currently baking in decent but not exceptional earnings growth in 2025.</p></li></ul><p><br></p><p class="last-child">Margins and valuations are high, and optimism is waning. There’s potential for a double negative if some of the headwinds materialise.</p></div></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="padding-top:12px;padding-bottom:12px;padding-right:0;padding-left:0" valign="top" class="mceBlockContainer" align="center"><span class="mceImageBorder" style="border:0;border-radius:0;vertical-align:top;margin:0"><img data-block-id="23" width="607.1999999999999" height="auto" style="width:607.1999999999999px;height:auto;max-width:660px !important;border-radius:0;display:block" alt="" src="https://mcusercontent.com/cdd951e6a7a08b835a0f38a3f/images/b2301774-6748-9386-ae37-f4a6b037ae6a.jpg" role="presentation" class="imageDropZone mceImage"></span></td></tr><tr><td style="padding-top:0;padding-bottom:0;padding-right:0;padding-left:0" valign="top"><table width="100%" style="border:0;border-radius:0;border-collapse:separate"><tbody><tr><td style="padding-left:24px;padding-right:24px;padding-top:12px;padding-bottom:12px" class="mceTextBlockContainer"><div data-block-id="9" class="mceText" id="dataBlockId-9" style="width:100%"><p class="last-child">It is worth highlighting that while valuations have long been proven as a good anchoring mechanism to assess portfolio decisions, they can also hold you back when the bulls are running! In 2024, the NVIDIA bull kept running and contributed over 3x the value of the next best performer to equity returns. Very simply, they supply components essential to the development and rollout of artificial intelligence (AI) based applications, and with the AI race still full steam ahead, they have been able to supply whatever they can manufacture at a 53% net profit margin! This is shown below in the table where ten shares contributed almost half of global equity returns last year – and of that, several were driven by the boom in AI-based services and the hunt for technology-based components. These are the companies making spades for the gold rush, a relatively safe bet compared to those companies aiming to develop and monetise new AI based services. Picking the winner in that area will be particularly difficult, but no doubt will grace our screens in years to come.</p></div></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="padding-top:12px;padding-bottom:12px;padding-right:0;padding-left:0" valign="top" class="mceBlockContainer" align="center"><span class="mceImageBorder" style="border:0;border-radius:0;vertical-align:top;margin:0"><img data-block-id="10" width="607.1999999999999" height="auto" style="width:607.1999999999999px;height:auto;max-width:660px !important;border-radius:0;display:block" alt="" src="https://mcusercontent.com/cdd951e6a7a08b835a0f38a3f/images/e3965361-1f72-6e35-df60-d4742e7ef306.jpg" role="presentation" class="imageDropZone mceImage"></span></td></tr><tr><td style="padding-top:0;padding-bottom:0;padding-right:0;padding-left:0" valign="top"><table width="100%" style="border:0;border-radius:0;border-collapse:separate"><tbody><tr><td style="padding-left:24px;padding-right:24px;padding-top:12px;padding-bottom:12px" class="mceTextBlockContainer"><div data-block-id="11" class="mceText" id="dataBlockId-11" style="width:100%"><p>When one of the world’s largest companies goes on a tear, it is extremely difficult to beat the market as a fund manager. In 2024, this was evident, with only 15% of global funds registered in South Africa outperforming a low-cost index fund. The principles of diversification and valuation work against excess returns being generated by unexpected good fortune. There are two ways to capture some of this increasingly high risk ‘good fortune’. (1) be fortunate enough to have invested in the fund or funds that, by design, position themselves here or (2) own the whole market via an index fund. We aim to incorporate both of these approaches in our portfolio structures, giving investors the best chance to benefit from great opportunities that are harder to spot, higher risk, and rarely make sense – at least to the trained investor.</p><p><br></p><p>In contrast, the average global equity share returned only 6.2% in 2024 relative to the 17.5% of the market or the 28% of the S&P 500. This shows how things have been skewed towards the big getting bigger, and this seemingly virtuous cycle is fuelled by the huge inflows generated by passive funds. Textbooks will tell you that this is not a sustainable situation and that rational, efficient market behaviour will ultimately prevail. But while the good news keeps flowing, while innovation still drives growth, and while no new crisis develops, we could see further optimism driving markets up despite a somewhat tenuous footing.</p><p><br></p><p class="last-child">Before we wrap up the discussion on global equities, it is worth noting that the US has led the charge, with the US Dollar boosting returns. It is now 40% stronger than a basket of other developed market currencies compared to the lows of 2008 when they broke the financial markets. The US gained 7% over the year, which marks down other regions with relatively weak currencies such as the UK, Japan and Europe. It remains a relatively expensive currency, supported by relatively high and persistent interest rates, and the fact that the rest of the world is not really helping itself compete against the US.</p></div></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="padding-top:12px;padding-bottom:12px;padding-right:0;padding-left:0" valign="top" class="mceBlockContainer" align="center"><span class="mceImageBorder" style="border:0;border-radius:0;vertical-align:top;margin:0"><img data-block-id="12" width="607.1999999999999" height="auto" style="width:607.1999999999999px;height:auto;max-width:660px !important;border-radius:0;display:block" alt="" src="https://mcusercontent.com/cdd951e6a7a08b835a0f38a3f/images/baa5cce3-c61e-faa1-a1c5-285e3746dad0.jpg" role="presentation" class="imageDropZone mceImage"></span></td></tr><tr><td style="padding-top:0;padding-bottom:0;padding-right:0;padding-left:0" valign="top"><table width="100%" style="border:0;border-radius:0;border-collapse:separate"><tbody><tr><td style="padding-left:24px;padding-right:24px;padding-top:12px;padding-bottom:12px" class="mceTextBlockContainer"><div data-block-id="13" class="mceText" id="dataBlockId-13" style="width:100%"><p>Actually, it’s a potential triple whammy: high margins, high valuations, strong dollar. How much good news is priced into the US, and how much bad news is priced into the rest of the world? At the point when it inevitably turns, you don’t want to be near too many dollar assets.</p><p><br></p><p><strong>Across the various strategies of global equity, it is increasingly clear where opportunity lies:</strong></p><ul><li><p>Growth funds are highly priced, it’s time to take profits. We may miss the ‘next big thing’, but experience tells us that when you have outsized returns, it makes sense to bank some. This was the case with Baillie Gifford Long Term Global Growth, a material investor in NVIDIA, Amazon and Tesla.</p></li><li><p>Quality oriented funds, likewise, remain highly priced (currently 6x price to sales, relative to a long term average of around 4x. That’s a third too high). They have been in this territory for some time, and it remains to be seen if these managers will eventually start cutting these expensive assets for other quality assets in other regions such as the emerging markets and Europe which are harder to find.</p></li><li><p>Value funds have rerated from the lows of 2022 (a forward PE of 9x earnings) and now stand at ~12.4x – a 37% rerating. This solid performance has been somewhat overshadowed by the NVIDIA’s of the world, and they now look around long-term average levels for valuations. This is a decent place to be, but less exciting than they have been on an absolute basis. Relative to alternative types of equity, they remain the attractive option.</p></li><li><p>Emerging Markets look cheap to fairly valued, and yet growth expectations are decent, and margins are strong. The main catalyst for the emerging markets will be a) a weaker dollar and b) China making progress in recovering from the past few years of economic volatility and repositioning itself within a global economy looking to reduce dependence on it.</p></li><li><p>In short, markets dominated by a handful of large winners present high specific risks looking forward and we need to exercise caution and consider banking profits where possible. However, opportunities still reside in value funds and emerging markets, where we continue to hold our most significant positions.</p></li></ul><h4><br>Global Interest Rates</h4><p>Fortunately, global interest rates remain attractive, and with inflation levels remaining lower than cash rates, parking funds in cash remains a safe option for now. US CPI has trended up marginally of late, now standing at 2.9%, and this is causing the Fed to be more conservative on their rate cutting cycle. This in turn has supported a stronger dollar as investors look to the higher yields available (the virtuous cycle from above). The bond market doesn’t play games though – yields have risen to ~4.6% for 10-year US Treasuries, indicating that inflation may be higher for some time to come.</p><h4><br>South Africa</h4><p>In South Africa, 2024 was a good year and returns across most asset classes decent, providing welcome relief for investors who have endured a never-ending series of own goals (load shedding, political turmoil, etc). The outcome of the election was positive for markets, and this was captured in returns across domestic equity, property and the bond market, with all asset classes showing performance in the mid-teens for the year. Equities would have delivered more if it were not for the underperforming resources sector (down 7%), which still constitutes a significant component of our equity market, and its supporting industries. Nevertheless, we can see some light for a change and there are increasing stories highlighting turnarounds in key industries – privatisation of the rail networks, no loadshedding since March 2024, increasing construction orderbooks and other domestically oriented opportunities. Within the SA equity market, these domestic role players are a relatively small faction (mainly banks, retailers, insurers, industrials). The balance is made up of rand hedges (Richemont for example), resource companies (operate locally, but returns dependent on commodity prices set offshore) and Naspers/Prosus (Tencent in China is their main asset – it’s a large technology platform like Google, Facebook, Amazon and a few others stitched together). That’s where SA equity gets a bit mixed: rand hedges are not obviously cheap, the local shares still offer a compelling case, miners are grappling with a commodity cycle at a high point, and lastly Naspers/Prosus face challenges as Tencent has just been added to the US Military Blacklist, limiting engagement with US businesses. Naspers fell ~10% on the news and it is yet to be seen what the longer-term impacts could be (other than obviously negative, and a sign of the risks of investing outside of the US!)</p><p><br></p><p>Yet overall, SA equities are trading <10x forward earnings, growth expectations are 20% in earnings, and price to sales is 1.1x. These are not stretched valuations. Risks remain elevated, but opportunities remain and so we will be retaining a decent exposure to domestic equities.</p><p><br></p><p>SA bonds rallied after the GNU was established but have retraced of late as US bonds sold off. This has more to do with the US than anything SA has done, and we still have the debt problem to fix which is not a simple task. Yields remain attractive, >10% over 10 years, which implies a real return of over 4% on an expected basis. Whilst this is high for bonds, it reflects the risks of investing in the SA government and economy. They are approximately fair value.</p><p><br></p><p>SA money market and cash rates remain attractive earning at least 8.5% which is well above inflation. These are good times for cash investors, and it is a good parking spot for now.</p><p><br></p><p>And then lastly the rand. At around R18.70 to the dollar, it remains relatively cheap. However, compared to other currencies like the GBP or EUR, it is less so, as they face their own challenges. For the rand to strengthen it is likely that a lower US CPI (and resultant rate cuts) will be the catalyst in the near term.</p><p><br></p><p>Overall, we are cautious on pockets of the global equity market, favour yield assets locally and offshore, and can justify holding relatively high levels of domestic assets relative to the past decade. It is quite possible to build a well-diversified domestic balanced fund with sufficient equity exposure. Offshore, however, we believe it is prudent to hold lower equity than usual, considering the points made above.</p><p><br></p><p>Complacency at this point is potentially costly. When markets are positive, returns are high, and factsheets look good – that is the time to be critical of positions and to test portfolios. This is something we are focussed on, weighing up the risks and opportunities to ensure portfolios are appropriately positioned in future</p><p class="MsoNormal mcePastedContent"><br></p><p class="MsoNormal mcePastedContent last-child"><strong><span style="font-size: 10pt"><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif">Asset Class Outlook</span></span></strong></p></div></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table><!--[if (gte mso 9)|(IE)]></td></tr></table><![endif]--></td></tr></tbody><tbody data-block-id="21" class="mceWrapper"><tr><td style="background-color:transparent" valign="top" align="center" class="mceSectionFooter"><!--[if (gte mso 9)|(IE)]><table align="center" border="0" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="660" style="width:660px;"><tr><td><![endif]--><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="max-width:660px" role="presentation"><tbody><tr><td style="background-color:#ffffff" valign="top" class="mceWrapperInner"><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" role="presentation" data-block-id="20"><tbody><tr class="mceRow"><td style="background-position:center;background-repeat:no-repeat;background-size:cover" valign="top"><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" role="presentation"><tbody><tr><td style="padding-top:0;padding-bottom:0" valign="top" class="mceColumn" data-block-id="-10" colspan="12" width="100%"><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" role="presentation"><tbody><tr><td style="padding-top:12px;padding-bottom:12px;padding-right:0;padding-left:0" valign="top" class="mceBlockContainer" align="center"><span class="mceImageBorder" style="border:0;border-radius:0;vertical-align:top;margin:0"><img data-block-id="24" width="561" height="auto" style="width:561px;height:auto;max-width:660px !important;border-radius:0;display:block" alt="" src="https://mcusercontent.com/cdd951e6a7a08b835a0f38a3f/images/3b224026-c8fb-c98d-9ed4-2f255be61c9b.jpg" role="presentation" class="imageDropZone mceImage"></span></td></tr><tr><td style="padding-top:0;padding-bottom:0;padding-right:0;padding-left:0" valign="top"><table width="100%" style="border:0;border-radius:0;border-collapse:separate"><tbody><tr><td style="padding-left:24px;padding-right:24px;padding-top:12px;padding-bottom:12px" class="mceTextBlockContainer"><div data-block-id="25" class="mceText" id="dataBlockId-25" style="width:100%"><p class="MsoNormal mcePastedContent last-child"><span style="font-size: 10pt"><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif">Below we highlight the main asset class prospects:</span></span></p></div></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="padding-top:12px;padding-bottom:12px;padding-right:0;padding-left:0" valign="top" class="mceBlockContainer" align="center"><span class="mceImageBorder" style="border:0;border-radius:0;vertical-align:top;margin:0"><img data-block-id="26" width="607.1999999999999" height="auto" style="width:607.1999999999999px;height:auto;max-width:660px !important;border-radius:0;display:block" alt="" src="https://mcusercontent.com/cdd951e6a7a08b835a0f38a3f/images/195654e2-3893-05fd-787c-60254f7af07a.png" role="presentation" class="imageDropZone mceImage"></span></td></tr><tr><td style="padding-top:12px;padding-bottom:12px;padding-right:0;padding-left:0" valign="top" class="mceBlockContainer" align="center"><span class="mceImageBorder" style="border:0;border-radius:0;vertical-align:top;margin:0"><img data-block-id="27" width="607.1999999999999" height="auto" style="width:607.1999999999999px;height:auto;max-width:660px !important;border-radius:0;display:block" alt="" src="https://mcusercontent.com/cdd951e6a7a08b835a0f38a3f/images/30a1e1a6-fcee-c3b5-e96d-6286b65f3570.png" role="presentation" class="imageDropZone mceImage"></span></td></tr><tr><td style="padding-top:12px;padding-bottom:12px;padding-right:0;padding-left:0" valign="top" class="mceBlockContainer" align="center"><span class="mceImageBorder" style="border:0;border-radius:0;vertical-align:top;margin:0"><img data-block-id="28" width="607.1999999999999" height="auto" style="width:607.1999999999999px;height:auto;max-width:660px !important;border-radius:0;display:block" alt="" src="https://mcusercontent.com/cdd951e6a7a08b835a0f38a3f/images/89464879-a432-d042-e94b-1a89e72f3d80.jpg" role="presentation" class="imageDropZone mceImage"></span></td></tr><tr><td style="background-color:#f4f4f4;padding-top:8px;padding-bottom:8px;padding-right:8px;padding-left:8px" valign="top" class="mceLayoutContainer"><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" role="presentation" data-block-id="19" id="section_0bc38366281700d02b02e2b0682b94bd" class="mceFooterSection"><tbody><tr class="mceRow"><td style="background-position:center;background-repeat:no-repeat;background-size:cover" valign="top"><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" role="presentation"><tbody><tr><td valign="top" class="mceColumn" data-block-id="-9" colspan="12" width="100%"><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" role="presentation"><tbody><tr><td valign="top" align="center"><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" role="presentation" data-block-id="-6"><tbody><tr class="mceRow"><td style="background-position:center;background-repeat:no-repeat;background-size:cover;padding-top:0px;padding-bottom:0px" valign="top"><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="24" width="100%" style="table-layout:fixed" role="presentation"><colgroup><col span="1" width="8.333333333333332%"><col span="1" width="8.333333333333332%"><col span="1" width="8.333333333333332%"><col span="1" width="8.333333333333332%"><col span="1" width="8.333333333333332%"><col span="1" width="8.333333333333332%"><col span="1" width="8.333333333333332%"><col span="1" width="8.333333333333332%"><col span="1" width="8.333333333333332%"><col span="1" width="8.333333333333332%"><col span="1" width="8.333333333333332%"><col span="1" width="8.333333333333332%"></colgroup><tbody><tr><td style="padding-top:0;padding-bottom:0" valign="top" class="mceColumn" data-block-id="-2" colspan="6" width="50%"><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" role="presentation"><tbody><tr><td style="padding-top:0;padding-bottom:0;padding-right:0;padding-left:0" valign="top"><table width="100%" style="border:0;border-radius:0;border-collapse:separate"><tbody><tr><td style="padding-left:16px;padding-right:16px;padding-top:12px;padding-bottom:12px" class="mceTextBlockContainer"><div data-block-id="17" class="mceText" id="dataBlockId-17" style="width:100%"><p style="text-align: left;" class="last-child"><a href="https://mailchi.mp/bf3e2ce3db2a/the-navigator-there-is-always-the-next-big-thing-17449466?e=[UNIQID]"><span style="font-size: 11px">View email in browser</span></a><span style="font-size: 11px"><br>Steward Capital (Pty) Ltd. · 1 Nollsworth Park, Nollsworth Crescent · La Lucia Ridge · Durban, KwaZulu-Natal 4051 · South Africa<br></span><a href="https://stewardcapital.us19.list-manage.com/profile?u=cdd951e6a7a08b835a0f38a3f&id=e7c35e7601&e=[UNIQID]&c=dfc49f3e1a"><span style="font-size: 11px">update your preferences</span></a><span style="font-size: 11px"> or </span><a href="https://stewardcapital.us19.list-manage.com/unsubscribe?u=cdd951e6a7a08b835a0f38a3f&id=e7c35e7601&t=b&e=[UNIQID]&c=dfc49f3e1a"><span style="font-size: 11px">unsubscribe</span></a></p></div></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></td><td style="padding-top:0;padding-bottom:0" valign="top" class="mceColumn" data-block-id="-3" colspan="6" width="50%"><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" role="presentation"><tbody><tr><td style="padding-top:12px;padding-bottom:12px;padding-right:48px;padding-left:48px" valign="top" class="mceBlockContainer" align="left"><span class="mceImageBorder" style="border:0;border-radius:0;vertical-align:top;margin:0"><img data-block-id="16" width="233.99999999999997" height="auto" style="width:233.99999999999997px;height:auto;max-width:234px !important;border-radius:0;display:block" alt="logo" src="https://mcusercontent.com/cdd951e6a7a08b835a0f38a3f/images/e5a2bac3-cf59-a62d-af80-a6bfe7c72ee6.png" class="mceLogo"></span></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td valign="top" class="mceColumn" data-block-id="-4" colspan="12" width="100%"><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" role="presentation"><tbody></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table><!--[if (gte mso 9)|(IE)]></td></tr></table><![endif]--></td></tr></tbody></table>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
</center>
</body></html>